CLEVELAND GUARDIANS · CLE

Connor Brogdon

Relief pitcher | Age 31 | Bats R · Throws R

Connor Brogdon's 2026 MLB stats, pitching game log, and recent strikeout form for the Cleveland Guardians. Through 16 appearances, Connor Brogdon carries a 5.06 ERA with 15 strikeouts. He averages 0.9 strikeouts per outing (4 over his last 5), a 8.4 K/9. See last-game strikeouts, strikeouts-per-game pace, splits, and next-game context below.

AL Central standings

Tonight CLE @ TB Steinbrenner Field · Mon Oct 12 · 8:00 PM ET O/U 6.5
◆ neutral park · -2% HR · -3% runs · even K vs league

Over 5.5 strikeouts (standard line — nothing quoted yet)

Connor Brogdon by game, in his last 10 games

36.0%calibrated projection
Outcomes
L5L10
One bar per game, most recent first
Last 10 rate0%0 of 10 games cleared
Calibrated model36.0%our projection for the standard line
Kalshi mid—no live price yet
1111020120
9/14vs CHW5/7@ KC5/4@ KC5/1@ OAK4/28vs TB4/25@ TOR4/21vs HOU4/20vs HOU4/17vs BAL4/15@ STL

Where the outcomes landed

10 games · line at 5.5
305122+
Innings10.3
ERA6.10
K/97.8
Pitches19
Starts10

Recent-form percentages are not probabilities — the calibrated line is this site’s model projection, and the Kalshi line is what the exchange is paying. No book or exchange has quoted this game yet, so the projection runs against the standard 5.5 line these markets are normally posted at. Research only — not betting advice.

Betting Snapshot

the numbers that decide tonight’s props

Through Sep 14, 2026
0straight starts with 6+ K
0consecutive quality starts
Tonight’s bats3R · 3Lbalanced lineup

TB hitters · 17.8% team K rate

Prop metricLast 3Last 5Season
Strikeouts per start10.2 K/91.00.80.9
Walks per start0.30.20.2
Earned runs per start0.70.40.6
Innings per startavg IP · bar shows floor–ceiling range0.80.2–1.1
Home runs allowed0.70.40.3

Model lean vs the posted market — research only, not betting advice.

Strikeouts O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 0.86
Walks O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 0.20

Arsenal

Per-pitch-type usage and stuff metrics. Season aggregates beside the last 5 outings — divergence between the two columns is the leading indicator that something has changed (velocity loss, command drift, batters adjusting). xwOBA measures contact quality (lower is better for the pitcher); whiff% and chase% are the swing-and-miss signals.

Pitch Usage Season Last 5
Whiff% Chase% Zone% xwOBA Whiff% Chase% Zone% xwOBA
FF
4-Seam Fastball · 134 pitches
 47.7% 15.4% 23.1% 7.5% 0.160 15.4% 23.1% 50.0% 0.150
CH
Changeup · 111 pitches
 39.5% 12.5% 37.5% 4.5% 0.998 12.5% 37.5% 27.8% 1.145
FC
Cutter · 30 pitches
 10.7% 0.0% 33.3% 13.3% 0.816 0.0% 33.3% 44.4% 0.830
CU
Curveball · 6 pitches
 2.1% - - 16.7% - - - 33.3% -

Data via Ball Don't Lie. The "Last 5" column aggregates the player's 5 most recent outings.

Game log

last 10 games · expand for the full season

Date Opp Result IP H R ER HR BB K GB FB P TBF DEC REL ERA
SEPTEMBER
Mon 9/14 vs CHW L 3-7 0.2 1 0 0 0 0 1 - - 14 3 - - 0.00
SEPTEMBER Subtotal 0.2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 14 3 - - 0.00
MAY
Thu 5/7 @ KC W 8-5 1.1 2 2 2 2 1 1 - - 36 7 - HLD 16.36
Mon 5/4 @ KC L 2-6 1.1 1 1 0 0 0 1 - - 24 6 - - 0.00
Fri 5/1 @ OAK W 8-5 0.2 1 0 0 0 0 1 - - 15 4 - HLD 0.00
MAY Subtotal 2.4 4 3 2 2 1 3 0 0 75 17 - - 7.50
APRIL
Tue 4/28 vs TB L 0-1 1.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 - - 19 5 - - 0.00
Sat 4/25 @ TOR L 3-5 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 2 - - 12 3 - - 0.00
Tue 4/21 vs HOU W 8-5 0.1 1 1 0 0 0 0 - - 11 3 - - 0.00
Mon 4/20 vs HOU L 2-9 1.0 1 1 1 1 0 1 - - 19 4 - - 9.00
Fri 4/17 vs BAL L 4-6 1.1 2 1 1 1 0 2 - - 23 6 - BS 8.18
Wed 4/15 @ STL L 3-5 1.1 2 3 3 0 1 0 - - 18 7 L - 24.55
Sat 4/11 @ ATL W 6-0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 1 1 - HLD 0.00
Wed 4/8 vs KC W 10-2 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 3 - - 24 5 - HLD 0.00
Sun 4/5 vs CHC L 0-1 1.0 1 1 1 0 1 0 - - 19 5 L - 9.00
Fri 4/3 vs CHC W 4-1 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 13 3 W - 0.00
APRIL Subtotal 8.6 8 7 6 2 2 8 0 0 159 42 - - 6.28
MARCH
Sat 3/28 @ SEA W 6-5 1.0 1 2 1 1 0 2 - - 17 4 SV SV 9.00
Thu 3/26 @ SEA W 6-4 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 1 - - 16 4 W - 0.00
MARCH Subtotal 2.0 2 2 1 1 0 3 0 0 33 8 - - 4.50
Season Totals 13.2 15 12 9 5 3 15 0 0 281 70 - - 6.14
BB: Walks allowed
DEC: Decision
ER: Earned runs
ERA: Earned run average for the appearance or subtotal
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
H: Hits allowed
HR: Home runs allowed
IP: Innings pitched
K: Strikeouts
P: Pitches
R: Runs allowed
REL: Relief outcome: save, hold, or blown save
TBF: Total batters faced

Team scoring environment

This connects the player page back to the team scoring profile, which matters when a player is being evaluated inside a moneyline or total bet.

Team recent scoring 5.2

3-2 in the latest stored sample.

Current runs allowed 3.6

Recent runs allowed with average margin +1.6.

Totals context 2-3

Average actual total 8.5 vs tracked 7.2.

Use this section together with the game log and trend chart on the page: a hot bat on a team scoring well is different from a hot bat inside a low-scoring team context, and the same idea applies to pitchers on teams playing high-total games.

Strikeout outlook today

Team game, player status, and recent strikeout form, all in one quick read.

Role Pitcher Position RP
Status Active Team Cleveland Guardians (CLE)
Next game 2026-10-12 Opponent @ TB
Probable starter Foster Griffin Opposing starter Drew Rasmussen
First pitch 8:00 PM Season type Postseason
Tracked total 6.5 Moneyline +142
Bats / Throws R/R Age 31

Connor Brogdon is not listed as CLE's probable starter today; Foster Griffin has that assignment right now. This page still gives the latest strikeout form and full pitching log for comparison.

Open team page Team trends Line movement

Recent strikeout form vs season

The comparison below keeps strikeouts, innings, and run prevention tied back to the season baseline.

Last 5 vs season ERA -0.20

WHIP +0.77 vs season across 5 games.

Last 10 vs season ERA +2.81

WHIP +0.63 vs season across 10 games.

Home/road lean Better at home

Recent ERA split +4.09 comparing road to home.

Team environment Team total 8.5

Recent team scoring 5.2 with O/U 2-3 around this player.

Sample Games IPERAWHIPKBB
Last 5 5 3.7 4.86 1.89 4 1
Last 10 10 8.0 7.88 1.75 9 2
Season 16 16.0 5.06 1.13 15 3

Season stats

Games pitched16Games started0
Wins / Losses2 / 2Saves1
Innings pitched16.0Strikeouts15
ERA5.06WHIP1.13

Split watchlist

Connor Brogdon's home/road splits this season: a 4.09 ERA across 8 home outings and 8.18 over 8 on the road.

This is the fastest way to compare home and road run prevention once both samples exist.

Split Games IPERAWHIPK
Home 8 6.6 4.09 1.21 7
Road 8 6.6 8.18 1.52 8

Connor Brogdon — frequently asked questions

Quick answers to the most common 2026 questions about Connor Brogdon, drawn from the stats and schedule on this page.

Is Connor Brogdon pitching today?

Yes — Connor Brogdon's team plays at TB today (Oct 12, 2026). See the status and game total in the next-game card above.

How many strikeouts per game does Connor Brogdon average?

Connor Brogdon is averaging 0.94 strikeouts per appearance in 2026 (15 strikeouts over 16 appearances).

What is Connor Brogdon's ERA this season?

Connor Brogdon has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 2026.

How many strikeouts did Connor Brogdon have in his last game?

Connor Brogdon recorded 1 strikeout in his most recent appearance on 2026-09-14.

How many strikeouts has Connor Brogdon had over his last 5 games?

Connor Brogdon has 4 strikeouts over his last 5 outings with a 4.86 ERA in that span.

What is Connor Brogdon's strikeout rate (K/9)?

Connor Brogdon is striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings in 2026.

How has Connor Brogdon pitched at home vs on the road?

Connor Brogdon has a 4.09 ERA at home and 8.18 on the road this season.

TB lineup — bats he faces tonight

The key matchups driving tonight’s strikeout and earned-run lines. Open a hitter for his splits and prop context.