4-1 in the latest stored sample.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS · WSH
Connelly Early
Starting pitcher | Age 24 | Bats L · Throws L
Connelly Early's 2026 MLB stats, pitching game log, and recent strikeout form for the Washington Nationals. Through 18 appearances, Connelly Early carries a 3.33 ERA with 94 strikeouts. He averages 5.2 strikeouts per outing (25 over his last 5), a 8.9 K/9. See last-game strikeouts, strikeouts-per-game pace, splits, and next-game context below.
Over 5.5 strikeouts (standard line — nothing quoted yet)
Connelly Early by game, in his last 10 games
32.2%calibrated projection
Last 10 rate60%6 of 10 games cleared
Calibrated model32.2%our projection for the standard line
Kalshi mid—no live price yet
Where the outcomes landed
10 games · line at 5.5Innings52.0
ERA3.46
K/99.5
Pitches85
Starts10
Recent-form percentages are not probabilities — the calibrated line is this site’s model projection, and the Kalshi line is what the exchange is paying. No book or exchange has quoted this game yet, so the projection runs against the standard 5.5 line these markets are normally posted at. Research only — not betting advice.
Betting Snapshot
the numbers that shape his prop lines
0straight starts with 6+ K
0consecutive quality starts
▼
walks trending down1.0 BB/start last 3
Prop metricLast 3Last 5Season
Strikeouts per start9.2 K/95.05.05.2
Walks per start1.01.41.9
Earned runs per start0.71.81.9
Innings per startavg IP · bar shows floor–ceiling range5.13.0–6.0
Home runs allowed0.30.60.8
Model lean vs the posted market — research only, not betting advice.
Strikeouts O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 5.09
Walks O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 1.60
Arsenal
Per-pitch-type usage and stuff metrics. Season aggregates beside the last 5 outings — divergence between the two columns is the leading indicator that something has changed (velocity loss, command drift, batters adjusting). xwOBA measures contact quality (lower is better for the pitcher); whiff% and chase% are the swing-and-miss signals.
| Pitch | Usage | Season | Last 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | ||
|
FF
4-Seam Fastball · 543 pitches
|
34.8% | 24.9% | 29.9% | 32.2% | 0.261 | 20.0% | 25.0% | 54.4% | 0.253 |
|
SI
Sinker · 318 pitches
|
20.4% | 14.0% | 26.7% | 32.4% | 0.358 | 5.9% | 20.6% | 50.0% | 0.356 |
|
CH
Changeup · 285 pitches
|
18.3% | 21.4% | 47.6% | 20.4% | 0.318 | 28.6% | 38.1% | 34.8% | 0.255 |
|
CU
Curveball · 170 pitches
|
10.9% | 18.6% | 37.2% | 27.7% | 0.332 | 35.7% | 35.7% | 43.2% | 0.180 |
|
SL
Slider · 124 pitches
|
7.9% | 28.6% | 31.4% | 27.4% | 0.292 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 55.0% | 0.278 |
|
ST
Sweeper · 122 pitches
|
7.8% | 46.5% | 62.8% | 21.3% | 0.136 | 38.7% | 54.8% | 33.3% | 0.150 |
Data via Ball Don't Lie. The "Last 5" column aggregates the player's 5 most recent outings.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | GB | FB | P | TBF | DEC | REL | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPTEMBER | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 9/26 | vs NYM | L 1-7 | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | 34 | 10 | - | - | 0.00 |
| SEPTEMBER | Subtotal | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 10 | - | - | 0.00 | |
| JUNE | ||||||||||||||||
| Tue 6/30 | vs WSH | L 1-8 | 4.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 61 | 15 | - | - | 0.00 |
| Thu 6/25 | vs NYY | W 6-3 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | 98 | 24 | W | - | 3.00 |
| Sat 6/20 | @ SEA | W 5-1 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | - | 98 | 24 | W | - | 1.50 |
| Sun 6/14 | vs TEX | L 4-6 | 4.2 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 91 | 27 | L | - | 12.86 |
| Mon 6/8 | @ TB | L 1-3 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - | - | 96 | 23 | L | - | 4.29 |
| Tue 6/2 | vs BAL | L 2-4 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - | - | 96 | 23 | L | - | 7.06 |
| JUNE | Subtotal | 29.5 | 32 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 540 | 136 | - | - | 4.58 | |
| MAY | ||||||||||||||||
| Wed 5/27 | vs ATL | W 8-0 | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | - | 97 | 28 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Wed 5/20 | @ KC | W 4-3 | 6.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | - | - | 93 | 27 | W | - | 4.43 |
| Fri 5/15 | @ ATL | L 2-3 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | 86 | 22 | - | - | 3.60 |
| Fri 5/8 | vs TB | W 2-0 | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | 96 | 26 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Sat 5/2 | vs HOU | L 3-6 | 4.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - | - | 77 | 20 | L | - | 11.25 |
| MAY | Subtotal | 29.1 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 449 | 123 | - | - | 3.09 | |
| APRIL | ||||||||||||||||
| Sun 4/26 | @ BAL | W 5-3 | 6.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | - | - | 92 | 24 | W | - | 2.90 |
| Tue 4/21 | vs NYY | L 0-4 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - | - | 92 | 23 | L | - | 5.29 |
| Wed 4/15 | @ MIN | W 9-5 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 85 | 23 | W | - | 1.50 |
| Fri 4/10 | @ STL | L 2-3 | 4.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 86 | 21 | - | - | 2.20 |
| Sat 4/4 | vs SD | L 2-3 | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | - | 88 | 19 | - | - | 4.50 |
| APRIL | Subtotal | 25.4 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 443 | 110 | - | - | 3.19 | |
| MARCH | ||||||||||||||||
| Sun 3/29 | @ CIN | L 2-3 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | 96 | 21 | - | - | 1.76 |
| MARCH | Subtotal | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 21 | - | - | 1.76 | |
| Season | Totals | 92.1 | 82 | 35 | 35 | 15 | 34 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 1562 | 400 | - | - | 3.42 | |
BB: Walks allowed
DEC: Decision
ER: Earned runs
ERA: Earned run average for the appearance or subtotal
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
H: Hits allowed
HR: Home runs allowed
IP: Innings pitched
K: Strikeouts
P: Pitches
R: Runs allowed
REL: Relief outcome: save, hold, or blown save
TBF: Total batters faced
Team scoring environment
This connects the player page back to the team scoring profile, which matters when a player is being evaluated inside a moneyline or total bet.
Recent runs allowed with average margin +0.2.
Average actual total 8.6 vs tracked 8.4.
Use this section together with the game log and trend chart on the page: a hot bat on a team scoring well is different from a hot bat inside a low-scoring team context, and the same idea applies to pitchers on teams playing high-total games.
Strikeout outlook today
Team game, player status, and recent strikeout form, all in one quick read.
| Role | Pitcher | Position | SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Active | Team | Washington Nationals |
| First pitch | - | Season type | Season |
| Bats / Throws | L/L | Age | 24 |
Connelly Early's next team game is not on today's slate, so the value here is recent strikeout form and full game-log context. He has a 3.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 18 appearances, while recent games around him have gone 2-3 to the total.
Recent strikeout form vs season
The comparison below keeps strikeouts, innings, and run prevention tied back to the season baseline.
WHIP +0.02 vs season across 5 games.
WHIP +0.04 vs season across 10 games.
Recent ERA split +3.54 comparing road to home.
Recent team scoring 4.2 with O/U 2-3 around this player.
| Sample | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 23.2 | 3.49 | 1.25 | 25 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 50.6 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 55 | 16 |
| Season | 18 | 94.2 | 3.33 | 1.23 | 94 | 34 |
Season stats
| Games pitched | 18 | Games started | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins / Losses | 7 / 5 | Saves | 0 |
| Innings pitched | 94.2 | Strikeouts | 94 |
| ERA | 3.33 | WHIP | 1.23 |
Split watchlist
Connelly Early's home/road splits this season: a 0.00 ERA across 1 home outings and 3.54 over 17 on the road.
This is the fastest way to compare home and road run prevention once both samples exist.
| Split | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1 |
| Road | 17 | 89.1 | 3.54 | 1.29 | 93 |
Connelly Early — frequently asked questions
Quick answers to the most common 2026 questions about Connelly Early, drawn from the stats and schedule on this page.
How many strikeouts per game does Connelly Early average?
Connelly Early is averaging 5.22 strikeouts per appearance in 2026 (94 strikeouts over 18 appearances).
What is Connelly Early's ERA this season?
Connelly Early has a 3.33 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 2026.
How many strikeouts did Connelly Early have in his last game?
Connelly Early recorded 1 strikeout in his most recent appearance on 2026-09-26.
How many strikeouts has Connelly Early had over his last 5 games?
Connelly Early has 25 strikeouts over his last 5 outings with a 3.49 ERA in that span.
What is Connelly Early's strikeout rate (K/9)?
Connelly Early is striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings in 2026.
How has Connelly Early pitched at home vs on the road?
Connelly Early has a 0.00 ERA at home and 3.54 on the road this season.