2-3 in the latest stored sample.
CHICAGO CUBS · CHC
Clay Holmes
Starting pitcher | Age 33 | Bats R · Throws R
Clay Holmes's 2026 MLB stats, pitching game log, and recent strikeout form for the Chicago Cubs. Through 18 appearances, Clay Holmes carries a 3.29 ERA with 78 strikeouts. He averages 4.3 strikeouts per outing (23 over his last 5), a 6.9 K/9. See last-game strikeouts, strikeouts-per-game pace, splits, and next-game context below.
Over 5.5 strikeouts (standard line — nothing quoted yet)
Clay Holmes by game, in his last 10 games
26.4%calibrated projection
Last 10 rate30%what the game bars show
Calibrated model26.4%our projection for the standard line
Kalshi mid—no live price yet
Where the outcomes landed
10 games · line at 5.5Innings53.0
ERA4.58
K/97.0
Pitches88
Starts10
Recent-form percentages are not probabilities — the calibrated line is this site’s model projection, and the Kalshi line is what the exchange is paying. No book or exchange has quoted this game yet, so the projection runs against the standard 5.5 line these markets are normally posted at. Research only — not betting advice.
Betting Snapshot
the numbers that shape his prop lines
0straight starts with 6+ K
0consecutive quality starts
▲
walks trending up4.0 BB/start last 3
Prop metricLast 3Last 5Season
Strikeouts per start7.2 K/94.34.64.3
Walks per start4.03.42.3
Earned runs per start3.33.62.1
Innings per startavg IP · bar shows floor–ceiling range5.44.1–6.0
Home runs allowed0.30.40.3
Model lean vs the posted market — research only, not betting advice.
Strikeouts O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 4.49
Walks O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 2.97
Arsenal
Per-pitch-type usage and stuff metrics. Season aggregates beside the last 5 outings — divergence between the two columns is the leading indicator that something has changed (velocity loss, command drift, batters adjusting). xwOBA measures contact quality (lower is better for the pitcher); whiff% and chase% are the swing-and-miss signals.
| Pitch | Usage | Season | Last 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | ||
|
SI
Sinker · 787 pitches
|
48.8% | 11.8% | 34.0% | 30.6% | 0.356 | 13.5% | 38.2% | 49.5% | 0.347 |
|
ST
Sweeper · 305 pitches
|
18.9% | 26.2% | 39.3% | 30.5% | 0.253 | 25.0% | 29.2% | 50.0% | 0.313 |
|
CH
Changeup · 231 pitches
|
14.3% | 30.0% | 55.0% | 15.6% | 0.179 | 38.7% | 58.1% | 26.9% | 0.099 |
|
FC
Cutter · 163 pitches
|
10.1% | 46.3% | 51.9% | 26.4% | 0.261 | 43.3% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 0.305 |
|
CU
Curveball · 111 pitches
|
6.9% | 20.0% | 60.0% | 13.5% | 0.242 | 30.0% | 70.0% | 28.6% | 0.169 |
|
FF
4-Seam Fastball · 16 pitches
|
1.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | 0.326 | 28.6% | 42.9% | 45.5% | 0.202 |
Data via Ball Don't Lie. The "Last 5" column aggregates the player's 5 most recent outings.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | GB | FB | P | TBF | DEC | REL | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPTEMBER | ||||||||||||||||
| Fri 9/25 | @ BOS | L 3-4 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | - | 78 | 20 | - | - | 4.39 |
| Fri 9/18 | @ CIN | L 4-6 | 5.1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | - | 97 | 23 | L | - | 10.59 |
| Sat 9/12 | vs PIT | W 4-3 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - | - | 100 | 27 | - | - | 3.46 |
| Sun 9/6 | @ MIA | L 3-10 | 4.1 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - | - | 80 | 23 | L | - | 17.56 |
| SEPTEMBER | Subtotal | 18.5 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 355 | 93 | - | - | 8.76 | |
| AUGUST | ||||||||||||||||
| Mon 8/31 | vs MIL | W 17-3 | 6.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | - | 101 | 23 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Tue 8/25 | @ ARI | L 4-5 | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 93 | 25 | - | - | 0.00 |
| Wed 8/19 | vs CHW | L 0-3 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | - | 86 | 23 | L | - | 1.76 |
| Fri 8/14 | vs STL | W 3-0 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 80 | 22 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Sat 8/8 | @ KC | L 3-6 | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | - | 70 | 18 | L | - | 9.00 |
| AUGUST | Subtotal | 28.3 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 430 | 111 | - | - | 1.59 | |
| MAY | ||||||||||||||||
| Fri 5/15 | vs NYY | L 2-5 | 4.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | - | 95 | 23 | L | - | 8.78 |
| Sat 5/9 | @ ARI | L 1-2 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | 103 | 24 | L | - | 3.46 |
| Sun 5/3 | @ LAA | W 5-1 | 6.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - | - | 99 | 26 | W | - | 1.45 |
| MAY | Subtotal | 15.5 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 73 | - | - | 4.06 | |
| APRIL | ||||||||||||||||
| Tue 4/28 | vs WSH | W 8-0 | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | 94 | 22 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Wed 4/22 | vs MIN | W 3-2 | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 88 | 27 | - | - | 2.57 |
| Wed 4/15 | @ LAD | L 2-8 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | 88 | 21 | L | - | 3.60 |
| Fri 4/10 | vs OAK | L 0-4 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | - | 81 | 23 | L | - | 1.76 |
| Sat 4/4 | @ SF | W 9-0 | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | 90 | 26 | W | - | 0.00 |
| APRIL | Subtotal | 30.1 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 441 | 119 | - | - | 1.50 | |
| MARCH | ||||||||||||||||
| Mon 3/30 | @ STL | W 4-2 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - | - | 90 | 23 | W | - | 3.46 |
| MARCH | Subtotal | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 23 | - | - | 3.46 | |
| Season | Totals | 97.6 | 79 | 39 | 37 | 6 | 42 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1613 | 419 | - | - | 3.41 | |
BB: Walks allowed
DEC: Decision
ER: Earned runs
ERA: Earned run average for the appearance or subtotal
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
H: Hits allowed
HR: Home runs allowed
IP: Innings pitched
K: Strikeouts
P: Pitches
R: Runs allowed
REL: Relief outcome: save, hold, or blown save
TBF: Total batters faced
Team scoring environment
This connects the player page back to the team scoring profile, which matters when a player is being evaluated inside a moneyline or total bet.
Recent runs allowed with average margin +0.2.
Average actual total 7.4 vs tracked 7.5.
Use this section together with the game log and trend chart on the page: a hot bat on a team scoring well is different from a hot bat inside a low-scoring team context, and the same idea applies to pitchers on teams playing high-total games.
Strikeout outlook today
Team game, player status, and recent strikeout form, all in one quick read.
| Role | Pitcher | Position | SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Active | Team | Chicago Cubs |
| First pitch | - | Season type | Season |
| Bats / Throws | R/R | Age | 33 |
Clay Holmes's next team game is not on today's slate, so the value here is recent strikeout form and full game-log context. He has a 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 18 appearances, while recent games around him have gone 2-3 to the total.
Recent strikeout form vs season
The comparison below keeps strikeouts, innings, and run prevention tied back to the season baseline.
WHIP +0.48 vs season across 5 games.
WHIP +0.22 vs season across 10 games.
Recent ERA split +2.87 comparing road to home.
Recent team scoring 2.6 with O/U 2-3 around this player.
| Sample | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 24.5 | 6.61 | 1.67 | 23 | 17 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 50.9 | 4.77 | 1.41 | 41 | 26 |
| Season | 18 | 101.1 | 3.29 | 1.19 | 78 | 42 |
Season stats
| Games pitched | 18 | Games started | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins / Losses | 6 / 8 | Saves | 0 |
| Innings pitched | 101.1 | Strikeouts | 78 |
| ERA | 3.29 | WHIP | 1.19 |
Split watchlist
Clay Holmes's home/road splits this season: a 1.20 ERA across 4 home outings and 4.07 over 14 on the road.
This is the fastest way to compare home and road run prevention once both samples exist.
| Split | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4 | 22.5 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 18 |
| Road | 14 | 75.1 | 4.07 | 1.26 | 60 |
Clay Holmes — frequently asked questions
Quick answers to the most common 2026 questions about Clay Holmes, drawn from the stats and schedule on this page.
How many strikeouts per game does Clay Holmes average?
Clay Holmes is averaging 4.33 strikeouts per appearance in 2026 (78 strikeouts over 18 appearances).
What is Clay Holmes's ERA this season?
Clay Holmes has a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 2026.
How many strikeouts did Clay Holmes have in his last game?
Clay Holmes recorded 3 strikeouts in his most recent appearance on 2026-09-25.
How many strikeouts has Clay Holmes had over his last 5 games?
Clay Holmes has 23 strikeouts over his last 5 outings with a 6.61 ERA in that span.
What is Clay Holmes's strikeout rate (K/9)?
Clay Holmes is striking out 6.9 batters per nine innings in 2026.
How has Clay Holmes pitched at home vs on the road?
Clay Holmes has a 1.20 ERA at home and 4.07 on the road this season.