4-1 in the latest stored sample.
SAN DIEGO PADRES · SD
Casey Mize
Starting pitcher | Age 29 | Bats R · Throws R
Casey Mize's 2026 MLB stats, pitching game log, and recent strikeout form for the San Diego Padres. Through 26 appearances, Casey Mize carries a 4.32 ERA with 110 strikeouts. He averages 4.2 strikeouts per outing (14 over his last 5), a 7.5 K/9. See last-game strikeouts, strikeouts-per-game pace, splits, and next-game context below.
Over 5.5 strikeouts (standard line — nothing quoted yet)
Casey Mize by game, in his last 10 games
21.1%calibrated projection
Last 10 rate20%what the game bars show
Calibrated model21.1%our projection for the standard line
Kalshi mid—no live price yet
Where the outcomes landed
10 games · line at 5.5Innings44.7
ERA7.46
K/95.0
Pitches77
Starts10
Recent-form percentages are not probabilities — the calibrated line is this site’s model projection, and the Kalshi line is what the exchange is paying. No book or exchange has quoted this game yet, so the projection runs against the standard 5.5 line these markets are normally posted at. Research only — not betting advice.
Betting Snapshot
the numbers that decide tonight’s props
0straight starts with 6+ K
0consecutive quality starts
▲
walks trending up3.0 BB/start last 3
Tonight’s bats3R · 3Lbalanced lineup
MIL hitters · 25.3% team K rate
Prop metricLast 3Last 5Season
Strikeouts per start7.8 K/91.02.84.2
Walks per start3.02.21.5
Earned runs per start4.74.22.4
Innings per startavg IP · bar shows floor–ceiling range4.93.0–5.2
Home runs allowed1.31.40.7
Model lean vs the posted market — research only, not betting advice.
Strikeouts O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 3.37
Walks O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 1.90
Arsenal
Per-pitch-type usage and stuff metrics. Season aggregates beside the last 5 outings — divergence between the two columns is the leading indicator that something has changed (velocity loss, command drift, batters adjusting). xwOBA measures contact quality (lower is better for the pitcher); whiff% and chase% are the swing-and-miss signals.
| Pitch | Usage | Season | Last 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | ||
|
FF
4-Seam Fastball · 708 pitches
|
34.0% | 18.4% | 25.9% | 38.8% | 0.251 | 17.8% | 20.0% | 47.1% | 0.346 |
|
SL
Slider · 572 pitches
|
27.5% | 23.0% | 24.1% | 42.8% | 0.327 | 19.6% | 17.4% | 51.9% | 0.484 |
|
FS
Splitter · 490 pitches
|
23.5% | 28.5% | 47.3% | 25.3% | 0.307 | 29.0% | 64.5% | 27.9% | 0.302 |
|
SI
Sinker · 222 pitches
|
10.7% | 13.2% | 23.1% | 48.2% | 0.411 | 4.0% | 32.0% | 64.4% | 0.535 |
|
SV
Slurve · 91 pitches
|
4.4% | 18.5% | 44.4% | 29.7% | 0.273 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.291 |
Data via Ball Don't Lie. The "Last 5" column aggregates the player's 5 most recent outings.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | GB | FB | P | TBF | DEC | REL | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPTEMBER | ||||||||||||||||
| Fri 9/25 | vs ARI | L 4-11 | 4.0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - | - | 71 | 21 | L | - | 15.75 |
| Sat 9/19 | vs MIA | W 7-6 | 3.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - | - | 74 | 18 | - | - | 15.00 |
| Mon 9/14 | @ COL | W 8-7 | 5.0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | - | 75 | 24 | W | - | 3.60 |
| Tue 9/8 | vs WSH | W 5-4 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | 90 | 22 | - | - | 5.19 |
| Wed 9/2 | @ CIN | L 3-7 | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | - | - | 85 | 18 | L | - | 9.00 |
| SEPTEMBER | Subtotal | 21.2 | 29 | 21 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 395 | 103 | - | - | 8.92 | |
| AUGUST | ||||||||||||||||
| Fri 8/28 | @ TB | L 4-9 | 5.0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | 77 | 25 | L | - | 3.60 |
| Sat 8/22 | vs MIN | W 7-5 | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | - | - | 47 | 13 | - | - | 16.36 |
| Sun 8/16 | @ CLE | W 5-0 | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 86 | 21 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Mon 8/10 | vs MIL | W 3-2 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - | - | 83 | 24 | - | - | 3.00 |
| Wed 8/5 | @ ARI | L 4-10 | 3.1 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - | - | 77 | 22 | L | - | 23.23 |
| AUGUST | Subtotal | 22.3 | 27 | 21 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 370 | 105 | - | - | 6.46 | |
| JULY | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 7/25 | vs KC | L 2-3 | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | 85 | 21 | - | - | 1.50 |
| Sun 7/19 | @ LAA | L 2-3 | 3.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | 74 | 16 | - | - | 2.90 |
| Sat 7/11 | vs PHI | L 2-4 | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 97 | 24 | L | - | 5.19 |
| Sun 7/5 | @ TEX | W 6-3 | 6.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | - | 94 | 27 | W | - | 2.90 |
| JULY | Subtotal | 20.5 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 350 | 88 | - | - | 3.07 | |
| JUNE | ||||||||||||||||
| Mon 6/29 | @ NYY | W 7-3 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | 88 | 22 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Tue 6/23 | vs NYY | L 3-4 | 5.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | 97 | 25 | L | - | 6.92 |
| Wed 6/17 | @ HOU | L 2-4 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 86 | 21 | L | - | 6.43 |
| JUNE | Subtotal | 16.4 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 68 | - | - | 3.84 | |
| MAY | ||||||||||||||||
| Wed 5/27 | vs LAA | W 4-0 | 4.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | 58 | 14 | - | - | 0.00 |
| Thu 5/21 | vs CLE | L 1-3 | 6.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | 95 | 24 | L | - | 2.90 |
| Sat 5/16 | vs TOR | L 1-2 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | 71 | 19 | - | - | 0.00 |
| MAY | Subtotal | 16.2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 57 | - | - | 1.11 | |
| APRIL | ||||||||||||||||
| Tue 4/28 | @ ATL | L 2-5 | 2.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 34 | 11 | L | - | 8.57 |
| Wed 4/22 | vs MIL | W 5-2 | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | - | 88 | 23 | W | - | 1.50 |
| Fri 4/17 | @ BOS | L 0-1 | 6.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | 94 | 23 | - | - | 0.00 |
| Sat 4/11 | vs MIA | W 6-1 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | 74 | 25 | W | - | 1.73 |
| Mon 4/6 | @ MIN | L 3-7 | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - | - | 90 | 24 | L | - | 10.98 |
| APRIL | Subtotal | 23.6 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 380 | 106 | - | - | 3.43 | |
| MARCH | ||||||||||||||||
| Tue 3/31 | @ ARI | L 5-7 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - | - | 93 | 22 | - | - | 1.50 |
| MARCH | Subtotal | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 22 | - | - | 1.50 | |
| Season | Totals | 126.2 | 123 | 69 | 63 | 18 | 38 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 2083 | 549 | - | - | 4.49 | |
BB: Walks allowed
DEC: Decision
ER: Earned runs
ERA: Earned run average for the appearance or subtotal
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
H: Hits allowed
HR: Home runs allowed
IP: Innings pitched
K: Strikeouts
P: Pitches
R: Runs allowed
REL: Relief outcome: save, hold, or blown save
TBF: Total batters faced
Team scoring environment
This connects the player page back to the team scoring profile, which matters when a player is being evaluated inside a moneyline or total bet.
Recent runs allowed with average margin +1.4.
Average actual total 10.8 vs tracked 8.2.
Use this section together with the game log and trend chart on the page: a hot bat on a team scoring well is different from a hot bat inside a low-scoring team context, and the same idea applies to pitchers on teams playing high-total games.
Strikeout outlook today
Team game, player status, and recent strikeout form, all in one quick read.
| Role | Pitcher | Position | SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Active | Team | San Diego Padres |
| Next game | 2026-10-07 | Opponent | vs MIL |
| Probable starter | Walker Buehler | Opposing starter | Robert Gasser |
| First pitch | 10:00 PM | Season type | Postseason |
| Tracked total | 7.5 | Moneyline | -113 |
| Bats / Throws | R/R | Age | 29 |
Casey Mize is not listed as SD's probable starter today; Walker Buehler has that assignment right now. This page still gives the latest strikeout form and full pitching log for comparison.
Recent strikeout form vs season
The comparison below keeps strikeouts, innings, and run prevention tied back to the season baseline.
WHIP +0.66 vs season across 5 games.
WHIP +0.50 vs season across 10 games.
Recent ERA split -5.69 comparing road to home.
Recent team scoring 6.4 with O/U 3-2 around this player.
| Sample | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 21.2 | 8.92 | 1.89 | 14 | 11 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 43.5 | 7.66 | 1.72 | 25 | 19 |
| Season | 26 | 131.1 | 4.32 | 1.23 | 110 | 38 |
Season stats
| Games pitched | 26 | Games started | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins / Losses | 6 / 10 | Saves | 0 |
| Innings pitched | 131.1 | Strikeouts | 110 |
| ERA | 4.32 | WHIP | 1.23 |
Split watchlist
Casey Mize's home/road splits this season: a 9.26 ERA across 5 home outings and 3.57 over 21 on the road.
This is the fastest way to compare home and road run prevention once both samples exist.
| Split | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5 | 20.4 | 9.26 | 1.76 | 16 |
| Road | 21 | 105.8 | 3.57 | 1.18 | 94 |
Casey Mize — frequently asked questions
Quick answers to the most common 2026 questions about Casey Mize, drawn from the stats and schedule on this page.
Is Casey Mize pitching today?
Yes — Casey Mize's team plays vs MIL today (Oct 7, 2026). See the status and game total in the next-game card above.
How many strikeouts per game does Casey Mize average?
Casey Mize is averaging 4.23 strikeouts per appearance in 2026 (110 strikeouts over 26 appearances).
What is Casey Mize's ERA this season?
Casey Mize has a 4.32 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 2026.
How many strikeouts did Casey Mize have in his last game?
Casey Mize recorded 1 strikeout in his most recent appearance on 2026-09-25.
How many strikeouts has Casey Mize had over his last 5 games?
Casey Mize has 14 strikeouts over his last 5 outings with a 8.92 ERA in that span.
What is Casey Mize's strikeout rate (K/9)?
Casey Mize is striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings in 2026.
How has Casey Mize pitched at home vs on the road?
Casey Mize has a 9.26 ERA at home and 3.57 on the road this season.
MIL lineup — bats he faces tonight
The key matchups driving tonight’s strikeout and earned-run lines. Open a hitter for his splits and prop context.
.266 AVG26 HR
.291 AVG25 HR
.306 AVG6 HR
.268 AVG21 HR
.209 AVG12 HR
.262 AVG11 HR