4-1 in the latest stored sample.
MINNESOTA TWINS · MIN
Bailey Ober
Starting pitcher | Age 31 | Bats R · Throws R
Bailey Ober's 2026 MLB stats, pitching game log, and recent strikeout form for the Minnesota Twins. Through 25 appearances, Bailey Ober carries a 4.47 ERA with 96 strikeouts. He averages 3.8 strikeouts per outing (22 over his last 5), a 6.6 K/9. See last-game strikeouts, strikeouts-per-game pace, splits, and next-game context below.
Over 5.5 strikeouts (standard line — nothing quoted yet)
Bailey Ober by game, in his last 10 games
22.0%calibrated projection
Last 10 rate10%what the game bars show
Calibrated model22.0%our projection for the standard line
Kalshi mid—no live price yet
Where the outcomes landed
10 games · line at 5.5Innings50.0
ERA4.32
K/96.5
Pitches82
Starts10
Recent-form percentages are not probabilities — the calibrated line is this site’s model projection, and the Kalshi line is what the exchange is paying. No book or exchange has quoted this game yet, so the projection runs against the standard 5.5 line these markets are normally posted at. Research only — not betting advice.
Betting Snapshot
the numbers that shape his prop lines
0straight starts with 6+ K
0consecutive quality starts
▼
walks trending down1.0 BB/start last 3
Prop metricLast 3Last 5Season
Strikeouts per start6.7 K/93.74.43.8
Walks per start1.01.61.5
Earned runs per start3.02.22.6
Innings per startavg IP · bar shows floor–ceiling range5.23.0–5.1
Home runs allowed1.00.60.8
Model lean vs the posted market — research only, not betting advice.
Strikeouts O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 4.18
Walks O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 1.55
Arsenal
Per-pitch-type usage and stuff metrics. Season aggregates beside the last 5 outings — divergence between the two columns is the leading indicator that something has changed (velocity loss, command drift, batters adjusting). xwOBA measures contact quality (lower is better for the pitcher); whiff% and chase% are the swing-and-miss signals.
| Pitch | Usage | Season | Last 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | ||
|
CH
Changeup · 696 pitches
|
33.2% | 19.7% | 32.1% | 29.2% | 0.406 | 13.6% | 33.9% | 42.2% | 0.518 |
|
FF
4-Seam Fastball · 658 pitches
|
31.4% | 13.7% | 23.1% | 38.2% | 0.343 | 12.0% | 26.0% | 56.8% | 0.454 |
|
SL
Slider · 381 pitches
|
18.2% | 16.5% | 33.1% | 37.0% | 0.277 | 21.6% | 40.5% | 48.2% | 0.274 |
|
ST
Sweeper · 265 pitches
|
12.6% | 42.7% | 38.5% | 32.1% | 0.145 | 44.8% | 51.7% | 36.8% | 0.196 |
|
SI
Sinker · 68 pitches
|
3.2% | 17.4% | 30.4% | 33.8% | 0.511 | 30.0% | 30.0% | 52.2% | 0.209 |
|
CU
Curveball · 31 pitches
|
1.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 0.037 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | - |
Data via Ball Don't Lie. The "Last 5" column aggregates the player's 5 most recent outings.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | GB | FB | P | TBF | DEC | REL | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPTEMBER | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 9/26 | vs TEX | L 2-6 | 5.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | - | - | 86 | 26 | L | - | 10.80 |
| Sun 9/20 | @ LAA | W 8-0 | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | 31 | 10 | SV | SV | 0.00 |
| Tue 9/15 | vs NYY | L 1-8 | 5.1 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 101 | 27 | L | - | 5.29 |
| Sun 9/6 | @ CHW | L 1-10 | 4.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - | - | 84 | 21 | L | - | 2.20 |
| SEPTEMBER | Subtotal | 17.2 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 84 | - | - | 5.23 | |
| AUGUST | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 8/29 | vs CHW | L 2-3 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 80 | 20 | - | - | 1.80 |
| Sun 8/23 | @ SD | L 1-8 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - | - | 87 | 22 | - | - | 1.80 |
| Mon 8/17 | vs ATL | W 4-2 | 4.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | 94 | 20 | - | - | 4.39 |
| Tue 8/11 | vs BAL | L 2-5 | 6.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | - | - | 100 | 26 | L | - | 7.50 |
| Thu 8/6 | @ KC | W 4-3 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | 74 | 23 | - | - | 4.50 |
| AUGUST | Subtotal | 26.1 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 435 | 111 | - | - | 4.14 | |
| JULY | ||||||||||||||||
| Thu 7/30 | vs KC | W 4-3 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 79 | 24 | - | - | 3.00 |
| Wed 7/22 | @ CLE | W 10-6 | 4.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | 89 | 21 | - | - | 9.00 |
| Fri 7/17 | @ CHC | W 5-2 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | - | 88 | 21 | W | - | 3.53 |
| Thu 7/9 | vs CLE | L 2-5 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - | 74 | 19 | - | - | 1.80 |
| JULY | Subtotal | 20.1 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 330 | 85 | - | - | 4.03 | |
| MAY | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 5/30 | @ PIT | L 9-10 | 4.2 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 97 | 27 | L | - | 15.00 |
| Sun 5/24 | @ BOS | W 6-5 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | 82 | 22 | W | - | 7.20 |
| Sun 5/17 | vs MIL | W 5-4 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - | - | 77 | 23 | W | - | 5.40 |
| Tue 5/12 | vs MIA | W 3-0 | 9.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | 89 | 29 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Wed 5/6 | @ WSH | L 2-15 | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 82 | 23 | L | - | 9.00 |
| MAY | Subtotal | 28.2 | 33 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 427 | 124 | - | - | 6.06 | |
| APRIL | ||||||||||||||||
| Thu 4/30 | vs TOR | W 7-1 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - | - | 88 | 24 | W | - | 1.50 |
| Sat 4/25 | @ TB | L 1-6 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 83 | 22 | L | - | 3.00 |
| Sun 4/19 | vs CIN | L 4-7 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - | - | 102 | 26 | - | - | 0.00 |
| Mon 4/13 | vs BOS | W 13-6 | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | 95 | 26 | W | - | 6.00 |
| Wed 4/8 | vs DET | W 8-6 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | 99 | 24 | W | - | 3.46 |
| Fri 4/3 | vs TB | W 10-4 | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | 82 | 18 | - | - | 6.75 |
| APRIL | Subtotal | 33.3 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 549 | 140 | - | - | 3.24 | |
| MARCH | ||||||||||||||||
| Sun 3/29 | @ BAL | L 6-8 | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | 56 | 17 | - | - | 6.75 |
| MARCH | Subtotal | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 17 | - | - | 6.75 | |
| Season | Totals | 128.9 | 133 | 69 | 65 | 21 | 37 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 2099 | 561 | - | - | 4.54 | |
BB: Walks allowed
DEC: Decision
ER: Earned runs
ERA: Earned run average for the appearance or subtotal
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
H: Hits allowed
HR: Home runs allowed
IP: Innings pitched
K: Strikeouts
P: Pitches
R: Runs allowed
REL: Relief outcome: save, hold, or blown save
TBF: Total batters faced
Team scoring environment
This connects the player page back to the team scoring profile, which matters when a player is being evaluated inside a moneyline or total bet.
Recent runs allowed with average margin +1.8.
Average actual total 7.9 vs tracked 7.6.
Use this section together with the game log and trend chart on the page: a hot bat on a team scoring well is different from a hot bat inside a low-scoring team context, and the same idea applies to pitchers on teams playing high-total games.
Strikeout outlook today
Team game, player status, and recent strikeout form, all in one quick read.
| Role | Pitcher | Position | SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Active | Team | Minnesota Twins |
| First pitch | - | Season type | Season |
| Bats / Throws | R/R | Age | 31 |
Bailey Ober's next team game is not on today's slate, so the value here is recent strikeout form and full game-log context. He has a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 25 appearances, while recent games around him have gone 2-2 to the total.
Recent strikeout form vs season
The comparison below keeps strikeouts, innings, and run prevention tied back to the season baseline.
WHIP +0.23 vs season across 5 games.
WHIP +0.10 vs season across 10 games.
Recent ERA split +1.77 comparing road to home.
Recent team scoring 5.0 with O/U 2-2 around this player.
| Sample | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 22.2 | 4.46 | 1.53 | 22 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 49.3 | 4.38 | 1.40 | 36 | 15 |
| Season | 25 | 131.0 | 4.47 | 1.30 | 96 | 37 |
Season stats
| Games pitched | 25 | Games started | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins / Losses | 7 / 7 | Saves | 1 |
| Innings pitched | 131.0 | Strikeouts | 96 |
| ERA | 4.47 | WHIP | 1.30 |
Split watchlist
Bailey Ober's home/road splits this season: a 3.83 ERA across 14 home outings and 5.60 over 11 on the road.
This is the fastest way to compare home and road run prevention once both samples exist.
| Split | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14 | 77.5 | 3.83 | 1.23 | 62 |
| Road | 11 | 51.4 | 5.60 | 1.46 | 34 |
Bailey Ober — frequently asked questions
Quick answers to the most common 2026 questions about Bailey Ober, drawn from the stats and schedule on this page.
How many strikeouts per game does Bailey Ober average?
Bailey Ober is averaging 3.84 strikeouts per appearance in 2026 (96 strikeouts over 25 appearances).
What is Bailey Ober's ERA this season?
Bailey Ober has a 4.47 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 2026.
How many strikeouts did Bailey Ober have in his last game?
Bailey Ober recorded 5 strikeouts in his most recent appearance on 2026-09-26.
How many strikeouts has Bailey Ober had over his last 5 games?
Bailey Ober has 22 strikeouts over his last 5 outings with a 4.46 ERA in that span.
What is Bailey Ober's strikeout rate (K/9)?
Bailey Ober is striking out 6.6 batters per nine innings in 2026.
How has Bailey Ober pitched at home vs on the road?
Bailey Ober has a 3.83 ERA at home and 5.60 on the road this season.