1-4 in the latest stored sample.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES · PHI
Aaron Nola
Starting pitcher | Age 33 | Bats R · Throws R
Aaron Nola's 2026 MLB stats, pitching game log, and recent strikeout form for the Philadelphia Phillies. Through 33 appearances, Aaron Nola carries a 4.67 ERA with 177 strikeouts. He averages 5.4 strikeouts per outing (20 over his last 5), a 9.1 K/9. See last-game strikeouts, strikeouts-per-game pace, splits, and next-game context below.
Over 5.5 strikeouts (standard line — nothing quoted yet)
Aaron Nola by game, in his last 10 games
34.6%calibrated projection
Last 10 rate50%what the game bars show
Calibrated model34.6%our projection for the standard line
Kalshi mid—no live price yet
Where the outcomes landed
10 games · line at 5.5Innings55.3
ERA2.77
K/99.1
Pitches87
Starts10
Recent-form percentages are not probabilities — the calibrated line is this site’s model projection, and the Kalshi line is what the exchange is paying. No book or exchange has quoted this game yet, so the projection runs against the standard 5.5 line these markets are normally posted at. Research only — not betting advice.
Betting Snapshot
the numbers that shape his prop lines
0straight starts with 6+ K
0consecutive quality starts
▼
walks trending down1.3 BB/start last 3
Prop metricLast 3Last 5Season
Strikeouts per start9.3 K/94.04.05.4
Walks per start1.31.61.8
Earned runs per start2.32.02.8
Innings per startavg IP · bar shows floor–ceiling range5.21.0–7.0
Home runs allowed1.01.01.1
Model lean vs the posted market — research only, not betting advice.
Strikeouts O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 4.55
Walks O/UOdds N/A
No line posted · proj 1.68
Arsenal
Per-pitch-type usage and stuff metrics. Season aggregates beside the last 5 outings — divergence between the two columns is the leading indicator that something has changed (velocity loss, command drift, batters adjusting). xwOBA measures contact quality (lower is better for the pitcher); whiff% and chase% are the swing-and-miss signals.
| Pitch | Usage | Season | Last 5 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | Whiff% | Chase% | Zone% | xwOBA | ||
|
KC
Knuckle Curve · 982 pitches
|
33.3% | 41.3% | 54.1% | 31.6% | 0.246 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 39.8% | 0.294 |
|
FF
4-Seam Fastball · 700 pitches
|
23.8% | 13.0% | 23.7% | 40.3% | 0.346 | 10.3% | 15.4% | 63.3% | 0.258 |
|
SI
Sinker · 535 pitches
|
18.2% | 11.3% | 23.8% | 40.8% | 0.368 | 0.0% | 24.0% | 53.3% | 0.395 |
|
CH
Changeup · 481 pitches
|
16.3% | 26.7% | 42.3% | 27.9% | 0.303 | 35.9% | 28.2% | 43.6% | 0.292 |
|
FC
Cutter · 225 pitches
|
7.6% | 26.7% | 44.4% | 30.7% | 0.339 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.259 |
|
SL
Slider · 13 pitches
|
0.4% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 46.2% | 0.479 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.361 |
|
FT
2-Seam Fastball · 10 pitches
|
0.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 60.0% | 0.389 | - | - | - | - |
Data via Ball Don't Lie. The "Last 5" column aggregates the player's 5 most recent outings.
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | GB | FB | P | TBF | DEC | REL | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPTEMBER | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 9/26 | vs TB | L 1-12 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | 21 | 7 | L | - | 27.00 |
| Wed 9/23 | vs MIL | L 1-4 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | - | - | 88 | 23 | L | - | 6.00 |
| Thu 9/17 | @ NYM | W 3-0 | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | - | 81 | 24 | W | - | 0.00 |
| Fri 9/11 | @ ATL | L 5-6 | 6.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - | - | 101 | 27 | - | - | 2.95 |
| Sun 9/6 | vs ATL | L 4-5 | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | 93 | 25 | - | - | 1.29 |
| SEPTEMBER | Subtotal | 27.1 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 384 | 106 | - | - | 3.32 | |
| AUGUST | ||||||||||||||||
| Mon 8/31 | @ ARI | W 2-1 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | 104 | 22 | W | - | 1.80 |
| Tue 8/25 | @ SEA | L 1-4 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - | - | 92 | 23 | L | - | 3.00 |
| Wed 8/19 | vs MIA | W 4-1 | 7.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | 100 | 26 | W | - | 1.29 |
| Thu 8/13 | @ MIN | W 7-1 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | - | - | 97 | 23 | W | - | 1.80 |
| Sat 8/8 | vs TOR | L 5-7 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - | - | 97 | 22 | - | - | 3.60 |
| Mon 8/3 | vs WSH | W 6-3 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 97 | 24 | - | - | 4.50 |
| AUGUST | Subtotal | 34.0 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 587 | 140 | - | - | 2.65 | |
| JULY | ||||||||||||||||
| Tue 7/28 | @ MIA | L 0-1 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - | - | 93 | 23 | L | - | 1.73 |
| Wed 7/22 | vs LAD | L 5-9 | 5.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | - | - | 85 | 23 | L | - | 8.82 |
| Thu 7/16 | vs NYM | L 1-4 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - | - | 97 | 27 | L | - | 4.50 |
| Fri 7/10 | @ DET | L 2-10 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - | - | 84 | 20 | - | - | 3.60 |
| Sun 7/5 | @ KC | L 2-5 | 7.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | 98 | 28 | L | - | 3.86 |
| JULY | Subtotal | 28.3 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 457 | 121 | - | - | 4.45 | |
| JUNE | ||||||||||||||||
| Mon 6/29 | vs PIT | L 7-11 | 4.1 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 86 | 23 | L | - | 15.37 |
| Wed 6/24 | @ WSH | W 5-4 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 86 | 21 | - | - | 3.60 |
| Thu 6/18 | vs NYM | L 4-6 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - | - | 97 | 24 | - | - | 3.60 |
| Sat 6/13 | @ MIL | W 9-8 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 85 | 22 | - | - | 6.43 |
| Sun 6/7 | vs CHW | W 9-5 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | - | 98 | 23 | - | - | 10.98 |
| Tue 6/2 | vs SD | W 3-2 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | 95 | 19 | - | - | 3.60 |
| JUNE | Subtotal | 27.4 | 34 | 23 | 21 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 547 | 132 | - | - | 6.90 | |
| MAY | ||||||||||||||||
| Tue 5/26 | @ SD | W 4-3 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | 80 | 21 | W | - | 3.00 |
| Wed 5/20 | vs CIN | L 4-9 | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | 77 | 23 | L | - | 7.20 |
| Fri 5/15 | @ PIT | W 11-9 | 3.2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - | - | 80 | 18 | - | - | 16.88 |
| Sat 5/9 | vs COL | W 9-3 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | - | 94 | 22 | - | - | 6.43 |
| Mon 5/4 | @ MIA | W 1-0 | 6.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | 94 | 21 | W | - | 0.00 |
| MAY | Subtotal | 24.4 | 28 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 425 | 105 | - | - | 5.53 | |
| APRIL | ||||||||||||||||
| Sun 4/26 | @ ATL | L 2-6 | 4.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | - | - | 101 | 25 | L | - | 12.86 |
| Mon 4/20 | @ CHC | L 1-5 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - | - | 88 | 22 | L | - | 10.98 |
| Tue 4/14 | vs CHC | L 4-10 | 5.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | 87 | 23 | - | - | 5.40 |
| Wed 4/8 | @ SF | L 0-5 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 84 | 23 | L | - | 4.50 |
| Fri 4/3 | @ COL | W 10-1 | 6.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | 95 | 25 | W | - | 1.48 |
| APRIL | Subtotal | 25.4 | 31 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 455 | 118 | - | - | 6.38 | |
| MARCH | ||||||||||||||||
| Sat 3/28 | vs TEX | L 4-5 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | - | - | 91 | 22 | - | - | 5.40 |
| MARCH | Subtotal | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 22 | - | - | 5.40 | |
| Season | Totals | 171.6 | 177 | 93 | 91 | 37 | 59 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 2946 | 744 | - | - | 4.77 | |
BB: Walks allowed
DEC: Decision
ER: Earned runs
ERA: Earned run average for the appearance or subtotal
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
H: Hits allowed
HR: Home runs allowed
IP: Innings pitched
K: Strikeouts
P: Pitches
R: Runs allowed
REL: Relief outcome: save, hold, or blown save
TBF: Total batters faced
Team scoring environment
This connects the player page back to the team scoring profile, which matters when a player is being evaluated inside a moneyline or total bet.
Recent runs allowed with average margin -3.2.
Average actual total 8.0 vs tracked 7.4.
Use this section together with the game log and trend chart on the page: a hot bat on a team scoring well is different from a hot bat inside a low-scoring team context, and the same idea applies to pitchers on teams playing high-total games.
Strikeout outlook today
Team game, player status, and recent strikeout form, all in one quick read.
| Role | Pitcher | Position | SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status | Active | Team | Philadelphia Phillies |
| First pitch | - | Season type | Season |
| Bats / Throws | R/R | Age | 33 |
Aaron Nola's next team game is not on today's slate, so the value here is recent strikeout form and full game-log context. He has a 4.67 ERA and 1.35 WHIP across 33 appearances, while recent games around him have gone 2-3 to the total.
Recent strikeout form vs season
The comparison below keeps strikeouts, innings, and run prevention tied back to the season baseline.
WHIP -0.28 vs season across 5 games.
WHIP -0.20 vs season across 10 games.
Recent ERA split -1.75 comparing road to home.
Recent team scoring 2.0 with O/U 2-3 around this player.
| Sample | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 27.1 | 3.32 | 1.07 | 20 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 55.1 | 2.78 | 1.14 | 56 | 18 |
| Season | 33 | 175.1 | 4.67 | 1.35 | 177 | 59 |
Season stats
| Games pitched | 33 | Games started | 33 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins / Losses | 7 / 12 | Saves | 0 |
| Innings pitched | 175.1 | Strikeouts | 177 |
| ERA | 4.67 | WHIP | 1.35 |
Split watchlist
Aaron Nola's home/road splits this season: a 5.70 ERA across 16 home outings and 3.95 over 17 on the road.
This is the fastest way to compare home and road run prevention once both samples exist.
| Split | Games | IP | ERA | WHIP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 16 | 80.5 | 5.70 | 1.47 | 88 |
| Road | 17 | 91.1 | 3.95 | 1.30 | 89 |
Aaron Nola — frequently asked questions
Quick answers to the most common 2026 questions about Aaron Nola, drawn from the stats and schedule on this page.
How many strikeouts per game does Aaron Nola average?
Aaron Nola is averaging 5.36 strikeouts per appearance in 2026 (177 strikeouts over 33 appearances).
What is Aaron Nola's ERA this season?
Aaron Nola has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 2026.
How many strikeouts did Aaron Nola have in his last game?
Aaron Nola recorded 0 strikeouts in his most recent appearance on 2026-09-26.
How many strikeouts has Aaron Nola had over his last 5 games?
Aaron Nola has 20 strikeouts over his last 5 outings with a 3.32 ERA in that span.
What is Aaron Nola's strikeout rate (K/9)?
Aaron Nola is striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings in 2026.
How has Aaron Nola pitched at home vs on the road?
Aaron Nola has a 5.70 ERA at home and 3.95 on the road this season.